فصلنامه پژوهش های پولی - بانکی
پیاپی 17 (پاییز 1392)

The goal in this research is to obtain some stylize facts about the nature of monetary and fiscal policies in Iranian economy. Different economic and political factors are selected as the potential explanatory variables in monetary base (MB) and government expenditure (GE) regressions and the posterior inclusion probabilities are calculated using a Bayesian model averaging approach. The results show that oil revenue is dominant in GE variations, GE and MB are not sensitive to output variations of different sectors, GE is not sensitive to a change in inflation, MB increases when inflation rises and MB growth rate is higher in average during 2005-2010 period. Therefore, it seems that the policy makers respond to a change in output and prices are not consistent with the macroeconomics recommendations and the economic attitude of the president is more effective.

In the present paper, the trade off between inflation and unemployment in Iran (1972-2010) was empericaly examined.For this porpuse, four scenarios were designed using Kalman filter method. The obtained results showed that there is an inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment in Iran.The execution of the policies to stimulate supply and reduce inflation expectations are considered as the policy recommendation in this research.

Consequences of the global financial crisis in 2008 and the resulting recession is one of the greatest examples of asset bubbles damaging effects. The role of monetary policy particularly in the form of high-powered money creation in the formation and explosion of the bubble assets can not be ignored. Expansionary monetary policy through liquidity increament and sending it to the asset markets, Provides asset price bubble growth And the constant increase in demand for these assets can spur this growth. In this study, the presence and size of bubbles in asset markets in the period from 1357 to 1389 have been analyzed. Also, the effects of monetary variables (money, narrow money and monetary base) on the probability of asset bubbles formation during the period of study are tested using a logit model. The results of this analysis show that only in the 2002-2003period, Tehran Stock Exchange has experienced Asset bubble. The relationship between the liquidity growth rate and the rate of change in the assets of the central bank on the probability of asset bubbles formation is positive, and relationship between narrow money, the net liabilities of central banks rate of change and other banks debt to the central bank are negative on the probability of asset bubbles formation.

Fiscal policy is said to be sustainable if the present value of future primary surpluses equals the current level of debt. In this paper we empirically examine the sustainability of public finances in Iran, during the period 1991-2011. Our analysis is based on Hamilton and Flavin (1986) and Martin (2000) criterion. There are four estimation approaches for testing fiscal sustainability in long-run: Engle & Granger, Johanson-Joselious, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (Dols) and Fully–modified Ordinary Least Sqaure (FMOLS). Also, we use sustainability indicator, primary deficit gap index, which are related to the intertemporal budget constraint in short run. Results, notably, show that fiscal sustainability is weak in long-run. Furthermore, assessing fiscal sustainability indicators in each year excluding oil revenues indicates that, fiscal policies have been unsustainable. On the other hand, despite considering oil revenue as part of government revenue resources, fiscal policy is sustainable only between 2003 and 2011.

This paper reviews the methods of measuring core inflation and introduces several criteria for comparing the performance of these methods. Using CPI monthly data during 1990:3 to 2012:11, our results show that “trimmed mean” has the best performance among other methods. On the other hand, although the performance of “CPI ex high volatile components” is not as good as trimmed mean, but this method is suitable for communication purposes of the policy maker.

The central bank is the sole provider of monetary statistics in the country and is responsible for their accurate timely presentation. Compliance of such statistics with the IMF standards improves their applicability in comprehensive planning of the financial system and assists the policy-makers in their prediction of economic indices and making appropriate monetary policies. It also makes them comparable with those of other countries. Having recategorized the creditors and debtors in deposit-receiving companies, this paper classifies their assets based on IMF standards and presents the CBI baklance-sheet accordingly. It also offers a new definition of base money and broad money.

Complete design and development of the working capital management can have effective role in company profitability and value creation in the market. The purpose of this study is empirical investigating on working capital management effect on profitability and market valuation of Iranian companies. The 90 sample of firms is drawn from the population of Iranian non-financial firms listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2006-2011. In this study, we used the variables "return on total assets and return on invested capital" as a measure of corporate profitability and Tobin's Q as the market valuation variable and variables such as the cash conversion cycle, the ratio of current assets to current liabilities ratio, the current assets to total assets ratio, the current debt to total assets ratio and debt to total assets is used as a measure of working capital management. The results indicate that there is a negative and significant relationship between market valuation and cash conversation cycle. There is a positive and significant relationship between the current assets to current liabilities ratio and market valuation.